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The Perfect Load

The Perfect Load

Find the perfect balance between load and capacity

Not only for your team, but for your individual athletes, one by one!

Find the perfect balance between load and capacity

Not only for your team, but for your individual athletes, one by one!

expected Succesful Pass

The xSP is the expected succes rate for each pass in a match. This predictive data model was developed by Forward Football, based on 6.900 passes of 11 youth matches that we have tracked as part of The Perfect Choice research program. We keep the model learning, by adding new match data from the same age categorie.

The model is based on the 6 parameters that you can see in the model above. The xSP is a number between 0 and 1 and rates how likely it is that a pass is going to be successful (received  by a teammate or not).

When adding new match data, for all passes we compare its xSP value (model) to the true Successful Pass (tSP). The tSP is 0 or 1, meaning the pass is received by a teammate yes (1) or no (0).

This comparison between the true Successful Passes (tSP) and the xSP benchmark provides an objective assessment in the form of player’s Pass Performance Ratio (PPR).  Are you above 1 in this ratio? That’s good, you have played better than the xSP benchmark! If it is under 1 there is still  room for improvement!

Example

xSP

1) in green
Pass player 6 to 8
– 420/600 passes succesful (historical data)
– Expected succesfull pass (xSP) = 0,7
– ‘Easy pass’

2) in red

Pass player 6 to 9
– 275/550 passes succesful (historical data)
– xSP = 0,5 (50% chance the ball is received)
– ‘Difficult pass’

PPR:
True successfull passes (tSP) = 13 (match)
Expected succesfull passes (xSP) = 12,6 (model)

PPR = tSP / xSP
= 13 / 12,6
  = 1,03

Objective benchmark to judge and compare the pass performance of (a) player(s). Per game, but more interesting, the development over time.

xSP

1) in green
Pass player 6 to 8
– 420/600 passes succesful (historical data)
– Expected succesfull pass (xSP) = 0,7
– ‘Easy pass’

2) in red

Pass player 6 to 9
– 275/550 passes succesful (historical data)
– xSP = 0,5 (50% chance the ball is received)
– ‘Difficult pass’

PPR:
True successfull passes (tSP) = 13 (match)
Expected succesfull passes (xSP) = 12,6 (model)

PPR = tSP / xSP
= 13 / 12,6
  = 1,03

Objective benchmark to judge and compare the pass performance of (a) player(s). Per game, but more interesting, the development over time.

voetballer_tpc

expected Succesful Attack

Currently we are modelling a player’s contribution to an attack. Each pass within the line of attack is given a rating, based on the start and end destination of the pass. For each position on the field, a weight is known about the probability of a dangerous situation if the ball is in that position (expected threat). We expect the model to be ready by the 1st of March 2022.

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